thurdl's take on...

...Barry Bonds

I was talking about Barry Bonds with someone today. It was a general progression of conversation. It started with debating that Casey (of Casey at the Bat) should have been intentionally walked. This makes sense, because first base was open, and he was, by the evidence in the poem, the most powerful hitter that mudville had. But, we wondered, was the IBB even a strategy back when Casey at the Bat was written. The answer is...probably not. Casey was written at 1888, and the earliest evidence of the intentional walk I can find is 1896, so Casey predated the strategy by 8 years.

Then, through the searches about IBBs, we found some old articles about the thought that there might be a Barry Bonds rule. Some kind of rule that would respond to the obscene number of walks that Bonds was getting (and this was written after a season he had just gotten in the 60+ range, and in 2004 he drew 120 doses of pitcher respect). Of course, the natural problem with any IBB rule is that the classic IBB (catcher stands up, and takes a step away from the batter, then just plays catch with the pitcher for four throws) would be replaced with walks that, while intentional, don't look such.

But this all brought us to the king of IBBs. Barry Bonds. And the one thing that amazes me about him. There is one element of his ability that I don't think any steroid scandal can take away. He has, likely, the best eye in the game. He can pick out balls, he can choose his pitches, and he probably creates more quality at bats than most players can hope for. Even without his unquestionably larger-than-they-used-to-be arms, he's dangerous, just because he knows when to swing, and when not to.

So, I started crunching the numbers of the 2004 season, and was surprised.

First, his main stats. 373 AB. 135 H. 232 BB. 41 K.

So we know he got 120 IBB, which leaves 112 of those walks as "unintentional". (Though how many of those were just four unhittable pitches without being a classic IBB is unknowable). So, let's say that 485 plate appearances that he got legitimately pitched to. Of those, only 8.5% resulted in being struck out, and an amazing 23% of those resulted in being walked. Hits, home runs, anything power like that...that can be affected by steroids. But, knowing when to swing? That's pure talent.

Let's run a comparrison. Nick Johnson right now has the best batting average on the Washington Nationals, and one of the top five in the National League.

228 AB. 74 H. 40 BB (6 IBB). 46 K.

So, legitimate plate appearances? 262. 13% walks, 17% strikeouts.

Major league leader in walks this season is Adam Dunn (a left fielder for the Reds)

213 AB. 53 H. 50 BB (6 IBB). 70 K.

That's 257 of what I'm calling "legitimate" plate appearances. 17% walks, 27% strikeouts.

It's no coincidence that these numbers are nowhere near the numbers that Bonds manages. So yes, perhaps the home run record might be tarnished...but he might still be one of the best at-plate guys to ever shoulder a bat.

posted by thurdl @ 5:50:00 PM